One of them, I told myself I would never get married – I was wrong.
I was wrong about that too.
I was wrong about
that too.
Hattrick? Ha! I wish. There’s plenty more where that came from.
You are not going to believe this next one, wait for it…
I told myself I could
invest like Warren Buffett!
I know what you are thinking, “Minoo, you don’t need to
tell us you were completely wrong about that. If you had been right, your name would be on the Forbes billionaires list.”
And you would be right. But I am going to tell you the story anyway.
Here are some reasons why…
Because you invested in penny stocks, and now you have
nothing but regret to show for it.
Because you invested in a stock based on a hot tip from a
friend or acquaintance, and lost a chunk of money.
Because you tried your hand at day trading, only to have to
call it a day, when wins were followed by losses, and wins were followed by
losses again, until you decided you had had enough.
Because you invested in a stock, based on one of the
talking heads on TV saying it was a good bet (example Jim Cramer), only to
discover they were wrong.
Because you couldn’t resist the temptation to time the
market, to sell because you thought the market was at a high, or to buy because
you thought the market was going higher, but your predictions
didn’t pan out.
Because you hit upon some strategy, be it Dogs of the
Dow, or something else, and said “aha, this is what I should do”, but found
yourself licking your wounds.
Because you became enamored (being further down on the learning curve is sometimes as bad as being
at the beginning of the learning curve) with stocks which had
the highest yield, i.e. paid the highest dividends, and you bought some
high-yielding stocks which turned out to be complete money sucks.
If your track record of investing includes one or more of
the above misadventures, you will relate to my story.
It’s pretty typical.
Every novice investor goes through stages.
Stage 1: To you, buying stocks is
gambling. It’s like going to Vegas – without the fun. (At least when you go to
Vegas, you can sow some wild oats and say, “What happens in Vegas, stays in
Vegas”. Even if you are not the wild-oats sowing type, you can still say “What
happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas” if you so desperately want people to think
you are a rake. To which I say “why?”But
let me not be judgmental.
Stage 2: Temptation rears its ugly head. The
irresistible power of suggestion is about to make a pawn out of you. Typically, you hear that someone made big
bucks ($$$) by investing small bucks ($$$)
in some stock. Your heart starts to race. Imagine if you could invest and get
lucky too – turn $1000 into $10,000 overnight. I am using big numbers, because
Chinese whispers will usually be at play. Woo hoo!
Stage 3: You decide to hold your nose and take
the plunge. Depending on the source of temptation, you do penny stock
investing, or day trading, or buying a stock based on a hot tip, or buying a
stock based on a TV talking head like Jim Cramer, or getting into the market
just because everyone and their uncle and aunt are doing so, or market timing,
or buying high yield stocks, or buying some stock after reading something in a book by Ken Fisher, or
reading something in a book about Warren Buffet, take your pick.
But what you don’t know is that, like the young adult who tries
to get too much out of life by living
it up, and ends up in a perpetually hung over and exhausted state, you, as a novice investor are trying to get too
much out of investing. You don’t realize it is very rare to make money in the stock market in a short period of time, and even if
you do, it is very rare to be able to hold on to it. So you are destined for an
investment hangover. The size of the
hangover depends on the size of your investment partying. And it can’t be cured
by Alka Seltzer, or Reset IVs.
Eventually, like the young adult, who learns to say no to
the temptation to continuously party, because at the end of the day, it is not
worth it, you become enlightened and eventually learn to say no to all the immature
investing temptations described earlier in this post, because at the end of the
day, it is not worth it.
Now that you have this background, I can tell you my story of how "I told myself I could invest like Warren Buffett”.
Imagine you have just finished reading the book The Warren Buffett Way.
In it, you come across a strategy called bottom fishing,
which the author says is one of Warren Buffett’s strategies. Bottom fishing is buying
stocks which are unpopular and have taken a beating.
You can’t wait to put this strategy into practice. The
reason why the strategy appeals to you, is because you have only small bucks to invest, not big bucks.
Your small
bucks – formerly, a
problem to you, now no longer seem to be a problem. You think to yourself, I
just have to follow Warren Buffett’s strategy to buy good stocks when they are
on sale. That way, I will spend small bucks on them.
You formulate a plan. “I will wait for the stock of a good company
to plunge in price and seize the day.”
Your moment soon arrives.
One day, you wake up and you find out on Yahoo Finance, or
Bloomberg, or WSJ online (oh my, hoity-toity, aren’t we), Krispy Kreme’s
stock has plunged 40%.
Perfect you think.
After all, don’t the long lines outside Krispy Kreme stores
attest to the popularity of their donuts?
And haven’t you heard people at work rave about the melt-in-your-mouth taste of Krispy
Kreme donuts?
And didn’t that lead you only just the other day to posit in your Mangalorean way that a company like Krispy Kreme
had a bright future for international expansion, and would do exceedingly well
in a country of "V"listers like India?
So when you wake up that morning and see that Krispy Kreme
stock has plunged by almost 40%, there is joy in your heart and dollar signs in
your eyes.
If it’s because Krispy Kreme missed their quarter by a huge
margin, you don’t care (because what is one quarter – and you are not aware of
the importance of that kind of information at the time, anyway.)
All you care is that you think Krispy Kreme is a great
company and now their stock has plunged.
You rub your hands with glee.
Here’s an opportunity to buy a stock on sale, just like
your idol Warren Buffett says to do.
You log onto your favorite online broker, and boom, with a
few clicks, the deed is done.
You are the owner of 100 shares of Krispy Kreme stock, and
it is headed, you are sure, to its pre-crash price, and then straight to the
moon.
Oh-oh! A sucker is born every second.
Little do you know, you are not a smart investor like
Warren Buffett. You only think you are. You are actually nothing but a silly,
ignorant, greedy and speculative fool.
You realize this only after your $2,000 becomes $1,000. This
happens after Krispy Kreme announces another dismal quarter.
You go, “Whoa, what just happened?”
And slowly, but surely, it dawns on you, you have been an utter idiot
and a fool.
It’s time to fess up to that by selling your Krispy Kreme shares and
taking a loss.
Friends and readers, this is my story.
I told myself I could
invest like Warren Buffett and turned out to be completely wrong.
So the question is, did any good come out of my Krispy
Kreme fiasco?
And the answer is yes.
I learned my lesson. Actually, I more than learned my
lesson, because $1,000 is not a small sum to lose, especially for a frugal modest-income person like Minoo Jha. Krispy Kreme was a cautionary tale to me.
Now I want you to cast yourself a few years into the future, and imagine yourself a sadder, but wiser investor – for this is the investor I
became, and I want you to feel what it was like to be in my new improved investing shoes.
You have put the shame and ignominy of the Krispy Kreme loss
(as well as some other embarrassing losses) behind you.
In fact, you even wrote
a Toastmaster’s speech and won an award for talking about your Krispy Kreme mess up.
After Krispy Kreme, you had a few more oopsies (par for the course for eager stock beavers).
But then you settled on an investing philosophy that bore the test of time.
And you wrote several posts from your altered perspective. You wanted investors to navigate the Wild West of investing with eyes wide open. You warned them that some things they might think were great, were not
so great after all, for example, great products do not necessarily make great stocks, and conglomerates do not necessarily make good investments (In your new wisdom, you
could appreciate Google’s decision to separate Google from Alphabet, even though Alphabet’s moonshots were so exciting, and oh so promising).
Your intention in writing these articles was to put a
spotlight on all the erroneous thinking you had been prey to.
And you wrote a post How To Turn Your Girl Scout or Cub Scout Into A Stock Scout, because you wanted people to fall off the investing bike as early as
possible, so as to be able to get back on and recover.
So in the final analysis, it’s all good, dear reader.
Though I had the idea I could invest like Warren Buffett, and it turned out I was completely wrong, this investor has lived to see
another day.
Now if you will excuse me, I have to go read what Howard Marks has to say, and what Ray Dalio has to say, and what Ken Fisher has to say,
so I can buy some stocks – just kidding!
Though I am a compulsive reader of investing information, I
have not bought a single individual stock since 2006. I have just been sitting
pretty with the stocks and mutual funds I bought prior to that.
“Amen!” as one of my sisters would say.
P.S. Here’s an
interesting tit-bit of information. While I was writing this post, I decided to
go back and research why Krispy Kreme stock got hammered back in 2004. I almost
fell off my chair by what I found out. The CEO blamed the low-carb trend for Krispy Kreme’s woes; he said the low carb trend had impacted Krispy Kreme’s
sales negatively, and was “here to stay”. Huh, and I was under the
impression the low-carb trend started in 2013, 5 years ago. “Minoo, how
clueless you are again.” Sigh! It’s the story of my life.
Do come back next week for the fourth part of this series,
10 Things I Told Myself That Turned Out To Be Completely Wrong.
Acknowledgements
Thanks for the feedback,
(comments, likes, shares) on Part 1 and 2 of this series. I appreciate the kudos
from old friends, new friends, and relatives who have become friends. You keep
me going.
NEXT, Thanks to all readers, current
and future, for sharing my journey to wisdom, meaning and a better life.
Like you, I am trying to find my way through this complex maze we call life,
and I am honored to have you share my journey, as I continue to seek the wisdom
hidden in plain sight.
FINALLY, A Happy Birthday shout-out: to those with May birthdays. If
something you have been telling yourself is completely wrong, hope you use your
birthday month to face reality and change course.
Have a blessed week, and hope to see you again next
week.
P.S. Not sure if you have time, but if you do,
you may enjoy these other posts:
Friendships
The United States of Friendship
– Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6,Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11, Part 12
Family
Our Cake Boss Family, Family Songs, The Nightdress Brigade, Family Advice I Am Grateful For, The Porki And Bonkers Tradition, No Need for 23 and Me,Letters to Lucas, Flying Lessons
Pets
A Fresh Perspective on Pets, Secrets of The Super Models In Our Family,BowWow, Meoww, Why You Should Not Abandon Your Pet
Nature
Hobbies
Managing Your Money
Yoga for Investors, How to Turn Your Girl Scout or Cub Scout Into
a Stock Scout, Financial Piece of Mind, Financial Piece of Mind – Part Deux, A Retirement Planning Formula You Won’t Find
on Oprah
Simplifying Your Life
You know what Wesabi is, How About Wabi Sabi? The Simple Life, The Element of Simplicity and Its Hope for
Living a More Satisfying Life
Getting Over Your
Self-Consciousness
The Element of Release From Inhibition, The Element of Being Less Self-Centered and
Its Hope for Seeing Things in The Correct Light, The Element of Getting Out of Our Comfort Zone
and Its Hope For Experiencing More of What Life Has to Offer
Learning to Laugh
How To Deal With The Sheldon Coopers in Your Life
– Part 1, Part 2, Part 3,Part 4, The Nightdress Brigade, You Aced the SAT, How About the LAT?, How To Cause Atmost Confuzen at the Scripps
Spelling Bee, How To Go From Madonna to Lilly to Myrtle in
The Course of A Single Evening - And Even Have a Sex Change, A Facebook Face-Off, A Short Stint in Advertising
Learning to Relax
How To Become a Low Maintenance Person, Connected Minds, How To Become The Kind of Person People Want
to Work with, How Many Times a Day Do You Visit Ireland? The Art of Carrying Things Lightly
Health
Raising the Bar, 4 Healthy Eating Ideas I Learned from My
Friend Julia, The Element of Becoming More Focused and
Precise In Our Goals and Its Hope for Achieving Powerful Results
Pursuing A Dream
What’s Next For You? The Element of The First Step and Its Hope for
Getting Big Things Started In Our Lives, She Victories
Changing in Good Ways
Maybe Its Time To Become More Receptive, Maybe It’s Time To Live More Purposefully, Maybe It’s Time To Bust Some Myths, Maybe It’s Time to Walk In The Direction Of
Your Fears, Maybe It’s Time To Understand What Freedom Is, Maybe It’s Time To Turn the Page, Maybe It’s Time To Rock The World, Maybe It’s Time For Freshness